At 01:00 UTCon July 24, 2026, the first leg of the UEFA Europa League second qualifying round will take place at Söderstadion in Stockholm, Sweden, where Swedish Allsvenskan powerhouse Hammarby host Belgian traditional giants Anderlecht. This is the first leg of a two-legged tie, with the winner gaining the upper hand for advancement.
Match Background
The UEFA Europa League is Europe's second-tier club competition, and this season's second qualifying round features teams from various leagues. Hammarby, a strong side in the Allsvenskan, earned European qualification through their excellent league performance last season. Anderlecht, a regular in the Belgian Pro League, finished fourth in the championship playoff last season, securing a Europa League wildcard spot. The two teams have no prior competitive meetings, making this their first encounter.
Team Information
Hammarby currently sit second in the Allsvenskan with 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses from 14 matches, scoring 32 goals and conceding 14, with a goal difference of +18 and a win rate of 57.1%. Their home form is particularly strong: 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 8 home games, scoring 26 goals and conceding only 5, a home win rate of 75%, averaging over 3 goals per home game while conceding less than 1 per game. The team is in excellent recent form, having won four consecutive matches across all competitions, including a 2-0 home win over Kalmar, a 2-1 away victory against Elfsborg in the Allsvenskan, a 4-1 friendly thrashing of Häcken, and a 4-0 league demolition of Degerfors. During this four-game winning streak, Hammarby have scored 12 goals and conceded only 2, showcasing outstanding performances at both ends.
As for Anderlecht, they finished the 30-match regular season of the Belgian Pro League last season with 12 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, scoring 43 goals and conceding 39, placing sixth. Their away form was mediocre: 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses in 15 away games, scoring 18 and conceding 25, an away win rate of 26.7%. The team has played three friendlies recently, remaining unbeaten with 1 win and 2 draws, including a 1-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar, a 3-2 win against NEC Nijmegen, and a 0-0 draw with Boulogne. However, it is worth noting that Anderlecht's new Belgian Pro League season has not yet started, so their competitive match rhythm may not match Hammarby's.
Recent Results
According to statistics, Hammarby average 2.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game in their last 3 matches, with 10.7 shots faced, 6.3 corners, and 59% possession. In their last 5 games, they average 2.8 goals scored, 1 conceded, 11.6 shots faced, 6.4 corners, and 55.6% possession. Over their last 10 games, they average 2.1 goals scored, 1.2 conceded, 11.3 shots faced, 6 corners, and 55.9% possession. This shows that Hammarby have stable attacking output, with particularly strong defensive performances in their last 3 games.
Anderlecht average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game in their last 3 matches, with 6 shots faced, 3 corners, and 48% possession. In their last 5 games, they average 1.6 goals scored, 1.6 conceded, 13.3 shots faced, 4 corners, and 43.5% possession. Over their last 10 games, they average 1.4 goals scored, 1.8 conceded, 14.6 shots faced, 4 corners, and 47.9% possession. Anderlecht's defensive statistics over the last 10 games are mediocre, conceding nearly 2 goals per game.
In terms of goal timing, Hammarby's goals in the Allsvenskan this season are concentrated in the 46-60 and 61-75 minute periods, while they concede most in the 76-90 minute period, indicating a tendency to loosen defensively late in games. For Anderlecht, most goals are scored in the 76-90 minute period, and most conceded in the 16-30 minute period, suggesting efficient attacking in the latter stages but defensive vulnerabilities in the middle of the first half.
Squad Information
Hammarby are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. The goalkeeper is Hahn, with a back four from left to right of Persson, Winther, Ibrahima, and Skoglund. The double pivot in midfield consists of Tähti and Karlsson, while the attacking trio includes Victor Lind, Besara, and M. Majeed, with Abraham as the lone striker. In terms of injuries, midfielder Sören Kone is sidelined with a knee injury, which somewhat affects midfield rotation. In their last league match, a 4-0 thrashing of Degerfors, forward M. Majeed scored twice, earning a match rating of 9.5, while Abraham scored 8.9 and Victor Lind 8.5, reflecting the team's hot form.
Anderlecht are expected to field a 4-1-4-1 formation. The goalkeeper is Coosemans, with a back four of Augustinsson, Biakoni, Keita, and De Greef. The single holding midfielder is Mamar, with a midfield four of Kana, Mario Stro, Mihlochetkovic, and D. Sikan, and Kana as the striker. Injury-wise, defender Sadra is out with a muscle tear, defender Lucas Hey has a fracture, and midfielder Kamara has a foot fracture, all three unavailable, weakening the defense and midfield. Anderlecht won their last friendly 1-0 against AZ Alkmaar, but overall team cohesion may not match Hammarby's.
Handicap Trends
The initial European odds were 2.27-3.40-2.60, now adjusted to 2.17-3.25-2.86, with the home win odds decreasing and draw and away win odds increasing, indicating growing confidence in the home side. The Asian handicap initially was a pick'em with the home team at 0.75 water, now adjusted to away team -0.25 with the home team at 0.99 water, shifting from a pick'em to the away team giving a goal, but the home team's high water suggests some reservation about Hammarby's home advantage. For totals, the initial line was Over 2.75 at 0.88 water, now adjusted to Over 2.5 at 0.90 water, a reduction indicating expectations of fewer goals.
From historical similar handicaps, Hammarby have 1 win and 2 losses in their last 3 pick'em games, a mediocre handicap record. Anderlecht have 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 3 pick'em games, a better record. However, these samples are small and of limited reference value.
Recommendation Logic
In summary, Hammarby enjoy home advantage, are in hot form with four consecutive wins and excellent performances at both ends, and are in the midst of their Allsvenskan season, maintaining good match rhythm. Anderlecht, while strong, have not started their new season, relying on friendlies for match fitness, which may lack competitive intensity, and are missing three players due to injury. The European odds have lowered the home win, and while the Asian handicap has shifted to the away team giving a goal, the home team's high water suggests some protection for a home team unbeaten outcome. The total has dropped from 2.75 to 2.5, reflecting lower goal expectations. Given Hammarby's solid home defense and Anderlecht's average away attacking efficiency, this match may end with a low scoreline.
Risk Reminder
Football matches are unpredictable. While Hammarby are in excellent form, they may lack European experience compared to Anderlecht. Anderlecht, as a traditional Belgian powerhouse, have deep European roots and remain unbeaten in friendlies, capable of causing an upset. Injury information may change before kickoff; it is advisable to monitor the starting lineups.
Further analysis of league data shows that Hammarby have scored 26 goals in 8 home Allsvenskan matches, averaging 3.25 per game, while conceding only 5, averaging 0.63 per game, with both home attacking and defensive stats ranking among the league's best. Anderlecht have scored 18 goals in 15 away Belgian Pro League matches, averaging 1.2 per game, and conceded 25, averaging 1.67 per game, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities on the road. In terms of goal difference distribution, Hammarby have won by 2 or more goals in 42.86% of matches, while Anderlecht have lost by 2 or more in 16.67% of matches, suggesting Hammarby have a good chance of a big home win.
Regarding handicap performance, Hammarby's full-game handicap win rate in the league this season is 57.1%, rising to 75% at home. Anderlecht's handicap data for the last 6 games is unavailable, but based on their away record, their handicap performance may be poor. For totals, Hammarby's home over rate is 62.5%, while Anderlecht's away over rate is unknown, but combined with recent goal data, a low-scoring game is more likely.
For half-time/full-time, Hammarby have a half-time win rate of 50% in their last 6 games, while Anderlecht's is only 16.7%, suggesting Hammarby may lead at half-time. In corners, Hammarby average 6.3 corners per game in their last 3, compared to Anderlecht's 3, so Hammarby may dominate corner counts.
Weather at Söderstadion on the day is partly cloudy with temperatures of 17-18°C, suitable for football. Referee information is not provided, but typically does not significantly impact the match.
Overall, Hammarby hold advantages in home form, recent form, squad completeness, and match rhythm, while Anderlecht face injury troubles and unknown match readiness. The changes in European odds and Asian handicaps also reflect confidence in the home side. Therefore, Hammarby are likely to avoid defeat, but caution is needed regarding Anderlecht's European experience and potential for an upset.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: Hammarby win
- Score: 1-0,2-0
- Handicap: Hammarby -0.25
- Total: Under 2.5