On July 24, 2026, at 03:00 UTC, the first leg of the second qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League will see Croatian top-flight side Hajduk Split host Cypriot First Division side Pafos FC at Poljud Stadium. This is the first match of a two-legged tie, with the winner advancing to the next round. The weather on matchday is clear, with temperatures between 25°C and 26°C, and pitch conditions are good for football.
Match Background
Hajduk Split are a traditional powerhouse in Croatia, finishing second in the Croatian First League last season to earn a spot in the UEFA Europa League qualifiers. They narrowly advanced past Slovakian side Žilina in the first round with a 3-2 aggregate score, showing resilience. Pafos FC finished fourth in the Cypriot First Division last season, also securing European qualification, but their recent friendly results have been mediocre, raising questions about their form.
Team Information
Hajduk Split have a total squad value of approximately €30 million, featuring several quality players. Based on their starting lineup against Žilina, they typically use a 4-2-3-1 formation: goalkeeper Toni Silić; defenders Šimun Hrgović, Ferdy Druijf, Dario Mareš, and Mathieu Acapandié; midfield double pivot Adrian Pajaziti and Rokas Pukštas; attacking line Dario Melnjak, Roko Brajković, and Michele Šego; lone striker Dalisson de Almeida. Substitutes include Barrett, Almeida, A. Delmoral, Gabrić, Guram, Hodak, Ivušić, Livaja, Mareš, Račić, Abduli, and others. Rokas Pukštas is the most valuable player at €6 million, followed by Šimun Hrgović, Michele Šego, Dario Mareš, Adrian Pajaziti, and Roko Brajković. The squad is fully fit with no major injury concerns.
Pafos FC also employ a 4-2-3-1 formation. Their last starting lineup against Slovan Bratislava included goalkeeper Lel; defenders Jaja, Vlad Dragomir, Gabriel Teixeira, and P. Rodrigues; midfielders Ivan Šunjić and Bruno; attacking line David Luís, David Godar, and Nicolas Ioannou; striker C. Kyriakidis. However, goalkeeper Charalampos Kyriakidis is sidelined with an arm injury, which could affect their defense. The most valuable player is Gabriel Teixeira, followed by Vlad Dragomir and P. Rodrigues, Ivan Šunjić, and Jaja and Lel. Other players have lower valuations.
Recent Form
Hajduk Split have won 7, drawn 1, and lost 2 in their last 10 matches, showing excellent form. In the first round of the Europa League, they won 2-0 at home against Žilina and lost 1-2 away, advancing on aggregate. In friendlies, they also performed well, beating Shkëndija 4-0, and defeating Celje and LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 each. In the final rounds of last season's Croatian league, they thrashed Ukva 6-3 and beat Varaždin 3-1, demonstrating strong attacking power. Statistically, Hajduk Split average 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game in their last 10, with 11.7 shots against, 4.9 corners, 2.0 yellow cards, 12.9 fouls, and 51.4% possession. In their last 5 games, they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, with 10.0 shots against, 5.8 corners, 1.8 yellow cards, 13.5 fouls, and 50.6% possession. In their last 3 games, they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, with 8.3 shots against, 7.0 corners, 2.3 yellow cards, 13.5 fouls, and 53.0% possession.
Pafos FC have won 4, drawn 3, and lost 3 in their last 10 matches, but their recent friendlies have been poor. Their last friendly was a 2-3 loss to Slovan Bratislava, preceded by a 0-1 loss to Jagiellonia Białystok, a 0-0 draw with Jablonec, and a 2-1 win over Cracovia. In the final stages of last season's Cypriot league, they beat APOEL 2-0, drew 2-2 with AEK Larnaca, beat Aris Limassol 2-0, but lost 0-2 to Omonia and 1-2 to Apollon Limassol. Statistically, Pafos FC average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game in their last 10, with 9.2 shots against, 4.1 corners, 3.2 yellow cards, 16.4 fouls, and 49.5% possession. In their last 5 games, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with 9.4 shots against, 4.8 corners, 2.3 yellow cards, 0 fouls, and 52.0% possession. In their last 3 games, they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, with 10.3 shots against, 5.0 corners, 2.5 yellow cards, 0 fouls, and 55.0% possession. The team has struggled offensively in friendlies, scoring only 2 goals in their last 3 games while conceding 4.
Squad Information
Hajduk Split have a fully fit squad with no major injuries. Key players include midfielder Rokas Pukštas, defender Šimun Hrgović, and forward Michele Šego. In their last European match, they lost 1-2 away but led at halftime, showing a commendable performance. Based on the last lineup, the starting XI is: goalkeeper Toni Silić; defenders Šimun Hrgović, Ferdy Druijf, Dario Mareš, Mathieu Acapandié; midfielders Adrian Pajaziti, Rokas Pukštas; attacking line Dario Melnjak, Roko Brajković, Michele Šego; striker Dalisson de Almeida. Substitutes include Barrett, Almeida, A. Delmoral, Gabrić, Guram, Hodak, Ivušić, Livaja, Mareš, Račić, Abduli, and others.
For Pafos FC, goalkeeper Charalampos Kyriakidis is out with an arm injury, but all other players are available. The most valuable player is Gabriel Teixeira, followed by P. Rodrigues and Vlad Dragomir. Based on the last lineup, the starting XI is: goalkeeper Lel; defenders Jaja, Vlad Dragomir, Gabriel Teixeira, P. Rodrigues; midfielders Ivan Šunjić, Bruno; attacking line David Luís, David Godar, Nicolas Ioannou; striker C. Kyriakidis. Substitute data is unavailable. The team has struggled offensively in friendlies, scoring only 2 goals in their last 3 games while conceding 4.
Odds Movement
The initial handicap for this match is Hajduk Split -0.25, with home team odds at 0.76 and away team odds at 1.00. The current handicap remains Hajduk Split -0.25, with home odds rising to 0.81 and away odds dropping to 1.01, indicating slightly increased confidence in the hosts. The over/under line initially opened at 2.25 goals, with over odds at 0.90 and under at 0.86. Currently, the over/under line remains 2.25, with over odds rising to 0.92 and under dropping to 0.88, showing a slight increase in interest for the over. In the 1X2 market, initial odds were home win 2.01, draw 3.20, away win 3.20. Currently, home win has risen to 2.06, draw dropped to 3.15, and away win dropped to 3.15. The slight increase in home win odds, coupled with decreases in draw and away win odds, suggests some market divergence on a big home win. For the first half, the handicap initially was Hajduk Split -0.25, with home odds at 1.12 and away at 0.65. Currently, home odds are 1.19 and away 0.66. The first-half over/under initially was 1 goal, with over odds at 1.07 and under at 0.69. Currently, over odds are 1.09 and under 0.71. First-half 1X2 odds initially were home win 2.69, draw 2.02, away win 3.95. Currently, home win is 2.71, draw 2.02, away win 3.90. For corners, the handicap initially was Hajduk Split -0.5, odds 0.90. Currently, it is Hajduk Split -1, odds 0.90. The corner over/under initially was 9.5, with over odds at 1.00 and under at 0.80. It remains unchanged.
Recommendation Logic
Hajduk Split have a strong home record, with a home win rate of 66.7% last season, averaging 1.83 goals scored and only 1.00 conceded per home game. They won 2-0 at home against Žilina in the first round of European qualifiers, showcasing their home advantage. Pafos FC have average away form, with an away win rate of 53.8% last season, but they have failed to win in their last three away friendlies, and their opponents were not particularly strong. Statistically, Hajduk Split average 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game in their last 10, while Pafos FC average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The hosts have the edge in both attack and defense. Additionally, under the same historical handicap, Hajduk Split have won 2 and lost 1 in their last 3 matches, with a 2-1 record against the spread. In contrast, under the same historical handicap, Pafos FC have won 1 and lost 2 in their last 3 matches, with a 1-2 record against the spread.
Risk Reminder
Although Pafos FC have poor friendly results, they finished fourth in the Cypriot league last season and possess some quality. Hajduk Split lost 1-2 away in the first qualifying round, exposing defensive vulnerabilities. Furthermore, with a handicap of -0.25, a draw results in a half-loss, carrying some risk. In terms of goal timing, Hajduk Split score most frequently in the final 15 minutes, accounting for 23% of their total goals, while Pafos FC also score heavily in that period but concede a lot as well. Therefore, the closing stages could be crucial. Additionally, Hajduk Split average 4.9 corners per game in their last 10, while Pafos FC average 4.1. The corner handicap is Hajduk Split -1, and the corner over/under is 9.5, which is worth noting.
Expanded Analysis
To provide a more comprehensive preview, let's delve deeper into the available data. Hajduk Split's recent form is impressive, with 7 wins in their last 10 matches. Their attacking prowess is evident from their average of 1.9 goals per game over the last 10, and they have been particularly strong at home, scoring 2 goals per game on average in their last 5 home matches. Defensively, they have been solid, conceding only 0.9 goals per game overall and 0.4 in their last 5. Their possession stats show they control the game well, with 51.4% over the last 10. In contrast, Pafos FC have been less consistent, with 4 wins in their last 10. Their attack averages 1.3 goals per game, but their defense concedes 1.1, and their recent friendlies have seen them struggle, scoring only 2 goals in their last 3 games while conceding 4. Their away form in the league last season was decent , but they have not won any of their last three away friendlies.
Looking at the head-to-head history, there are no previous meetings between these two clubs, so this match will be a first encounter. This adds an element of unpredictability. However, based on current form and squad strength, Hajduk Split appear to have the upper hand.
The odds movement provides additional insights. The initial handicap of -0.25 for Hajduk Split has seen the home odds rise slightly from 0.76 to 0.81, while the away odds have dropped from 1.00 to 1.01. This suggests that the market is slightly more confident in the hosts, but the change is marginal. The over/under line has remained at 2.25, with over odds increasing from 0.90 to 0.92, indicating a slight expectation of goals. The 1X2 odds show a small increase in home win odds and decreases in draw and away win odds, which could be interpreted as the market adjusting to potential value on the away side, but the overall picture still favors Hajduk Split.
In terms of goal timing, Hajduk Split are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes of matches, scoring 23% of their goals in that period. They also concede a significant portion of goals in the opening 15 minutes and the final 15 minutes . Pafos FC, on the other hand, score heavily in the final 15 minutes but also concede a lot in that period . This suggests that the closing stages could be crucial, with both teams likely to push for goals. Additionally, Pafos FC concede a high percentage of goals in the first 15 minutes , which could be an area for Hajduk Split to exploit early.
Corner statistics also offer insights. Hajduk Split average 4.9 corners per game in their last 10, while Pafos FC average 4.1. The corner handicap has moved from -0.5 to -1 for Hajduk Split, indicating increased expectation for them to win the corner count. The corner over/under is set at 9.5, which is a relatively high line, suggesting that a high number of corners is anticipated.
Disciplinary records show that Hajduk Split average 2.0 yellow cards per game in their last 10, while Pafos FC average 3.2. This could be a factor if the match becomes physical, with Pafos FC potentially more prone to fouls . However, in their last 5 games, Pafos FC have 0 fouls recorded, which may be due to data issues, but their overall trend suggests a more aggressive style.
Considering the above, Hajduk Split's home advantage, recent form, and statistical superiority make them the favorites. However, Pafos FC's quality from last season and the fact that they have nothing to lose could make them dangerous. The handicap of -0.25 means that a draw would result in a half-loss for Hajduk Split backers, so there is some risk. The over/under line of 2.25 suggests that a low-scoring match is possible, but given both teams' goal-scoring patterns, especially in the final stages, the over could be a viable option.
In summary, this match promises to be an intriguing contest between a Croatian powerhouse and a Cypriot challenger. Hajduk Split will look to leverage their home support and strong form, while Pafos FC will aim to overcome their recent struggles and cause an upset. The data points to a home win, but caution is advised due to the narrow handicap and the potential for a tight game.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: Hajduk Split win
- Score: 2-1,3-1
- Handicap: Hajduk Split -0.25
- Total: Over 2.25