Match Background
At 07:00 UTCon July 18, 2026, Round 19 of the Brazilian Serie A will feature a clash between Mirassol and Gremio at Mirassol's home ground. This is another direct encounter between the two teams in the league, both hoping to improve their current standings. Mirassol currently ranks 19th, while Gremio is 15th. The points gap is narrow, but recent form and overall strength show some differences. Historically, Mirassol has won all three recent meetings, including Gremio's 0-1 home loss in September 2025, Mirassol's 4-1 home win in April 2025, and a 3-2 home win in the 2022 Copa do Brasil. Mirassol holds a clear psychological advantage, but Gremio, as a traditional powerhouse, should not be underestimated. The match will be played under clear skies with temperatures around 22-23°C, ideal for football.
Team Information
Mirassol's performance in BRA D1 this season has been poor. After 17 matches, they have 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, scoring 18 goals and conceding 24, with a goal difference of -6 and 16 points, placing them 19th, on the edge of the relegation zone. Their home record is 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 11 and conceding 11, a mediocre home performance with a win rate of only 33.3%. Away, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 6 losses, showing weak away form. In the last 6 matches, Mirassol has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with fluctuating form. Against top-10 teams, Mirassol has 1 win, 0 draws, and 5 losses; against bottom-10 teams, they have 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, showing some ability to take points from similar-level opponents. In the first half, Mirassol's overall record is 5 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses; at home, they have 4 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, with a high unbeaten rate in home first halves.
Gremio has played 18 matches this season, with 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, scoring 20 goals and conceding 23, a goal difference of -3 and 21 points, ranking 15th. Their home performance is relatively strong: 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in 9 home games, scoring 15 and conceding 11, with a home win rate of 55.6%. However, their away record is terrible: 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses in 9 away games, scoring only 5 and conceding 12, ranking 18th in away performance. In the last 6 matches, Gremio has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, average form. Against top-10 teams, Gremio has 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses; against bottom-10 teams, they have 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. In the first half, Gremio's overall record is 3 wins, 11 draws, and 4 losses; away, they have 0 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with many draws in away first halves.
Recent Results
Mirassol has 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in the last 10 matches, including 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss at home. In their most recent league match, Mirassol lost 0-1 away to Athletico Paranaense, following a 1-0 home win over Fluminense, showing inconsistent form. Statistically, Mirassol averages 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game in the last 10, with 47.5% possession and 4.3 corners per game. In the last 3 matches, they average only 0.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, with a recent offensive slump. In the last 5 matches, they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Mirassol has been shot 12.8 times per game in the last 10, with 11.3 fouls and 2.4 yellow cards. In the Copa Libertadores, Mirassol has performed well recently, such as a 2-1 away win over Alaves Reserve and a 2-0 home win over LDU Quito, but league pressure is greater.
Gremio has 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in the last 10 matches, including 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses away. Their most recent match was a friendly, a 3-1 home win over Cruzeiro, preceded by a 1-3 home loss to Corinthians. Statistics show Gremio averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game in the last 10, with 49.6% possession and 4.1 corners per game. In the last 3 matches, they average 2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, with relatively active offense. In the last 5 matches, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Gremio has been shot 14 times per game in the last 10, with 14.7 fouls and 2.1 yellow cards. Gremio also plays in the Copa Sudamericana, recently drawing 2-2 at home with Turque and winning 2-0 over Palestino, but league away form remains a weakness.
Squad Information
For Mirassol, according to source data, several players are injured: forward Nathan Fogaça , defender William Machado , defender I. Marques , and forward Negueba . These absences will affect both offense and defense. In the previous lineup, Mirassol used players including Athuan, A. Luis, Borges, Joe Carol, etc., with an average rating of 6.61. Specific ratings: defender William Machado 7.2, midfielder Aldo 7.2, defender Joe Carol 7.1, midfielder Céron 7.0, midfielder Alves Borges 7.0, goalkeeper Athuan 6.8, defender Reinaldo 6.5, defender Oliveira 6.5, defender Borges 6.4, forward A. Luis 6.4, forward Alêsson 6.4, midfielder K. Alves 6.3, midfielder Murá 6.3, forward Eduardo 6.3, midfielder Chico 6.2, center forward Edson Carioca 6.1. Mirassol's average rating in the last 10 matches ranges from 6.54 to 6.93.
For Gremio, injuries are more severe: forward Cristian Pavón , defender Marlon Xavier , forward J. Enamorado , midfielder Juan Nardoni , goalkeeper Gabriel Chapecó , defender Gustavo Martins , goalkeeper Thiago Beltrame , and forward Roger . Multiple key players are out, especially in defense and goalkeeper positions. No data is available for the previous lineup, but the team's average rating in the last 10 matches ranges from 6.44 to 7.06, with significant fluctuations. Gremio's injury list includes several key players, which may severely impact defensive stability and offensive efficiency.
Handicap Trends
Handicap data for this match comes from the match interface. European odds: initial home win 1.96, draw 3.40, away win 3.65; current home win 1.99, draw 3.35, away win 3.50. The home win odds have risen slightly, while draw and away win odds have dropped, indicating reduced market confidence in a home win. Asian handicap: initial home -0.5, home team water 0.96, away team 0.92; current home -0.5, home team water 0.96, away team 0.91. The handicap remains unchanged, with away team water slightly lower. Over/Under: initial 2.25, over water 0.90, under 0.97; current 2.25, over water 0.88, under 0.99. Over water has dropped, under water risen, indicating market preference for under. First half handicap: home -0.25, home water 1.08, away 0.80; first half total 1, over water 1.04, under 0.83; first half 1X2: home 2.58, draw 2.11, away 4.20. Corner handicap: total corners 9.5, over water 0.85, under 0.95.
From league handicap trends, Mirassol's full-time Asian handicap win rate is only 23.5%, home win rate 33.3%, and last 6 matches win rate 33.3%; full-time over rate 52.9%, home over rate 55.6%. Gremio's full-time Asian handicap win rate is 44.4%, away win rate 33.3%, and last 6 matches win rate 66.7%; full-time over rate 38.9%, away over rate 33.3%, under rate 66.7%. Gremio has strong recent handicap winning ability, while Mirassol is weak. First half handicap: Mirassol's first half Asian handicap win rate is 47.1%, home 44.4%, last 6 matches 83.3%; Gremio's first half Asian handicap win rate is 50.0%, away 55.6%, last 6 matches 66.7%. Under similar historical handicaps, Mirassol at home -0.5 once beat Lanús 1-0 but lost 0-1 to Red Bull Bragantino and 0-1 to Capivariano. Gremio when receiving -0.5 drew 1-1 with Bahia and 0-0 with Athletico Paranaense, but lost 0-1 to Flamengo. Recently, under similar handicaps , Botafogo beat Santos 2-1, Vasco da Gama lost 0-1 to Atlético Mineiro, and Santos beat Vitória 3-1.
Recommendation Logic
Considering the fundamentals, recent form, squad completeness, and handicap data, several key points emerge. First, Mirassol's home performance is average, but they have recently beaten Fluminense and Corinthians at home, showing some fighting ability. Gremio is winless away, with weak away offense averaging only 0.56 goals per game and defense conceding 1.33 per game. Second, Mirassol's injury situation is relatively mild, while Gremio has up to 8 players absent, especially in defense and goalkeeper positions, which may affect defensive stability. Third, the handicap of home -0.5 with mid-high water offers some support for the home team, but the slight rise in European home win odds indicates market divergence. The total of 2.25 with low over water suggests under is favored, as both teams have low scoring efficiency recently: Mirassol averages only 0.3 goals in the last 3 matches, and Gremio averages 0.56 away. In terms of goal timing, Mirassol's goals are concentrated in 31-45 minutes and 76-90 minutes , while conceding mostly in 16-30 minutes and 76-90 minutes ; Gremio's goals are mostly in 46-60 minutes and 61-75 minutes , conceding in 16-30 minutes and 76-90 minutes . For half-time/full-time, Mirassol has 3 instances of half-time win/full-time win, 2 of half-time draw/full-time draw, and 3 of half-time loss/full-time loss; Gremio has 5 instances of half-time draw/full-time draw and 4 of half-time draw/full-time loss. For odd/even, Mirassol's over rate is 52.9% and odd rate 70.6%; Gremio's under rate is 61.1% and even rate 61.1%.
Risk Reminder
This match carries some uncertainty. Although Mirassol plays at home, their overall strength is not superior, and their recent offense has been poor. Gremio, despite a terrible away record, still has overall strength and tradition, and their recent handicap winning ability is strong. Injuries may significantly affect Gremio, but the actual starting lineup and player form need to be confirmed on match day. The handicap of home -0.5 is not a sure win; a draw or away win is possible. Historically, Mirassol has three consecutive wins, but the matches were not one-sided; for example, Gremio's 0-1 home loss in September 2025 was close. Additionally, Gremio recently won 3-1 in a friendly against Cruzeiro, showing some recovery, while Mirassol lost 0-1 away to Athletico Paranaense with a blunt attack. In corners, Mirassol averages 5.71 corners per game, Gremio 3.89, so Mirassol may have an advantage. Overall, this match requires careful evaluation of all factors.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: Mirassol win
- Score: 1-0,2-0
- Handicap: Mirassol -0.5
- Total: Under 2.25