The World Cup knockout stage features a match where hosts USA take on European giants Belgium at Seattle Stadium. The match kicks off at 08:00 UTC on July 7, 2026, with clear weather and temperatures around 25-26 degrees Celsius.
Match Background
This is a knockout match of the 2026 World Cup. Both teams performed well in the group stage and round of 16. USA, as hosts, have home advantage, while Belgium have advanced with their deep squad. The two teams have met before, but there are no recent direct encounters. According to historical data, the only previous meeting was in the 2014 World Cup, where Belgium won 1-0, but that match is too old to be relevant for current analysis.
Team Information
USA are ranked in the upper-middle tier globally, with a young and energetic squad. Key players include Pulisic, McKennie, and Adams. Belgium boast world-class stars like De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Courtois, with rich experience. In terms of squad value, Belgium have a slight edge, but USA's home advantage cannot be underestimated. USA's squad includes players like Pulisic valued at 40 million euros, McKennie and M. Deilen at 30 million euros, Balogun at 30 million euros, and defenders A. Robinson and C. Richards at 25 million euros. Belgium's squad features Doku valued at 65 million euros, Tielemans at 35 million euros, De Bruyne and Lukaku at 15 million euros each, and Courtois at 18 million euros.
Recent Form
According to data, USA average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game over the last 10 matches, with 52.8% possession. Belgium average 2.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with 59.6% possession. Belgium are more efficient in attack and more solid in defense. In the last 3 matches, USA average 2 goals scored and 1 conceded; Belgium average 2.3 goals scored and 1 conceded. Both teams are in good form. USA have 3 wins and 1 loss in the group stage and round of 16, while Belgium are unbeaten with 1 win and 3 draws. USA's recent form shows 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 10 matches, with an average of 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Belgium have 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in the last 10 matches, with an average of 2.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. In the last 5 matches, USA average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Belgium average 2.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. USA's possession has improved to 56.2% in the last 5 matches, while Belgium maintain 59.2% possession.
Squad Information
USA are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation: goalkeeper Matt Freese; defenders A. Robinson, Ream, C. Richards, Freeman; midfielders M. Deilen, Adams, McKennie; forwards Pulisic, Balogun, and Dest. Belgium are expected to use a 4-2-3-1 formation: goalkeeper Courtois; defenders Castagne, Mechelen, A. Theate, M. De Cuyper; double pivots Tielemans and Nicolas Raskin; attacking midfielders Doku, De Bruyne, Trossard supporting striker Lukaku. For USA, Christian Loda and Mark McKenzie are doubtful due to injury. For Belgium, defender Zeno Debast is out with a hamstring injury. USA's starting lineup includes players with significant market values: Pulisic , McKennie , M. Deilen , Balogun , A. Robinson , C. Richards , Adams , Dest , Freese , Ream , and Freeman . Belgium's starting lineup includes Doku , Tielemans , De Bruyne , Lukaku , Courtois , Trossard , Castagne , Mechelen , A. Theate , M. De Cuyper , and Nicolas Raskin .
Odds Movement
The initial handicap was pick'em with home team at 0.92 and away team at 0.90. Currently, it remains pick'em with home team at 0.89 and away team at 0.99, showing a slight lean towards the home team. The over/under started at 2.75 goals, with over from 0.97 to 0.85 and under from 0.83 to 1.02, indicating market expectation of more goals. In European odds, home win from 2.57 to 2.55, draw from 3.75 to 3.45, away win from 2.54 to 2.70, with a significant drop in draw odds. The half-time handicap remains pick'em with home at 0.93 and away at 0.95. Half-time over/under is 1 goal, with over at 0.71 and under at 1.19, suggesting few first-half goals. For corner kicks, the handicap has moved from pick'em to USA -0.5 with home at 0.85 and away at 0.95, indicating bookmakers expect Belgium to have a corner advantage. Corner over/under is 9.5, with over at 0.95 and under at 0.85.
Recommendation Logic
USA, as hosts, have been strong in the group stage, but Belgium have superior overall strength and experience. With a pick'em handicap, neither side has an advantage. Combined with the drop in draw odds, a draw in regular time is likely. For over/under, both teams have good attacking firepower recently, but Belgium's defense is solid, and USA's home attack is stable. The 2.75 goal line supports over. The half-time over/under of 1 goal with low over odds suggests a cautious start. For corners, Belgium are favored on the handicap, but USA have strong corner statistics at home.
Risk Reminder
Two USA players are doubtful, which may affect squad completeness. Belgium's key players are older, and fitness could be an issue. In the knockout stage, both teams may be more cautious, so a low-scoring draw is possible. Additionally, Belgium have many draws recently, and despite high attacking efficiency, their finishing ability needs improvement.
Detailed Match Background
This is a key knockout match of the 2026 World Cup, with hosts USA facing Belgium at Seattle Stadium. USA performed excellently in the group stage: 4-1 win, 2-0 win, 3-2 win, and a 2-0 win in the round of 16. Belgium had 1 win and 3 draws in the group stage: 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, and a 2-2 draw in the round of 16 followed by a penalty shootout win. The two teams have only met once before, in the 2014 World Cup, where Belgium won 1-0, but that is too old to be relevant.
Detailed Recent Form
USA have 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 10 matches, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded, with 52.8% possession. In the last 5 matches, they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with 56.2% possession. In the last 3 matches, they average 2 goals scored and 1 conceded, with 54.3% possession. Belgium have 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in the last 10 matches, averaging 2.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with 59.6% possession. In the last 5 matches, they average 2.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with 59.2% possession. In the last 3 matches, they average 2.3 goals scored and 1 conceded, with 58.7% possession. Belgium are more efficient in attack and more solid in defense, but USA are in hot form at home.
Squad Depth Analysis
In USA's starting lineup, Pulisic is valued at 40 million euros and is the attacking core. McKennie and M. Deilen are both valued at 30 million euros, providing midfield control. Balogun is valued at 30 million euros, offering attacking threat. Defensively, A. Robinson and C. Richards are both valued at 25 million euros. For Belgium, Doku is valued at 65 million euros, a winger threat. Tielemans is valued at 35 million euros, a midfield organizer. De Bruyne is valued at 15 million euros, experienced. Lukaku is valued at 15 million euros, a target man. Goalkeeper Courtois is valued at 18 million euros, world-class.
Injury Situation
USA midfielder Christian Loda and center-back Mark McKenzie are both doubtful, which may affect midfield and defensive rotations. Belgium defender Zeno Debast is confirmed out with a hamstring injury, impacting defensive depth.
Detailed Odds Movement
The initial handicap was pick'em with home team at 0.92 and away team at 0.90, indicating the bookmakers see the teams as equal. Currently, it remains pick'em with home team at 0.89 and away team at 0.99, showing money flowing slightly to the home team. The over/under started at 2.75 goals, with over from 0.97 to 0.85 and under from 0.83 to 1.02, indicating market expectation of more goals. In European odds, home win from 2.57 to 2.55, draw from 3.75 to 3.45, away win from 2.54 to 2.70, with a significant drop in draw odds, showing bookmakers guarding against a draw. For half-time handicap, pick'em with home team at 0.93 and away team at 0.95. Half-time over/under is 1 goal, with over at 0.71 and under at 1.19, suggesting few first-half goals. For corner kicks, handicap is USA -0.5 at 0.85 and Belgium at 0.95. Corner over/under is 9.5, with over at 0.95 and under at 0.85.
Technical Statistics Comparison
USA have been shot 10.2 times per game, have 5.7 corners, 1.4 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 52.8% possession in the last 10 matches. Belgium have been shot 9.1 times, have 7.1 corners, 1.1 yellow cards, 11.7 fouls, and 59.6% possession. Belgium have an edge in possession and corners, while USA concede more shots. In the last 3 matches, USA have been shot 8 times, have 6.7 corners, 1.3 yellow cards, 10.7 fouls, and 54.3% possession. Belgium have been shot 10.7 times, have 5.3 corners, 0.7 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 58.7% possession.
Goal Timing Distribution
USA goal timing: 1-15 min 19%, 16-30 min 14%, 31-45 min 22%, 46-60 min 8%, 61-75 min 12%, 76-90 min 20%. Conceded timing: 1-15 min 11%, 16-30 min 23%, 31-45 min 15%, 46-60 min 17%, 61-75 min 11%, 76-90 min 17%. Belgium goal timing: 1-15 min 9%, 16-30 min 13%, 31-45 min 20%, 46-60 min 22%, 61-75 min 10%, 76-90 min 23%. Conceded timing: 1-15 min 14%, 16-30 min 16%, 31-45 min 14%, 46-60 min 11%, 61-75 min 16%, 76-90 min 28%. USA score more in the first half, while Belgium concentrate goals in the second half.
Half-Time/Full-Time Statistics
USA half-time/full-time: HT win/FT win 3 times, HT loss/FT loss 1 time, others none. Belgium: HT win/FT win 1 time, HT draw/FT draw 1 time, HT loss/FT draw 2 times, HT draw/FT loss 1 time. USA are good at maintaining leads, while Belgium often come from behind or draw after trailing.
Over/Under and Odd/Even
USA's last 4 matches: 2 overs, 2 unders; 2 odds, 2 evens. Belgium's last 4 matches: all evens; 2 overs, 2 unders. Belgium matches tend to have even scores.
Averages
USA average 2.5 goals scored, 1 conceded, 5.75 corners per game. Belgium average 2 goals scored, 1 conceded, 4.5 corners. USA are slightly stronger in attack, but both concede the same.
Same Historical Handicap
USA under pick'em in last 3 matches: World Cup vs Turkey 3-2 loss, friendly vs Uruguay 5-1 win, friendly vs Ecuador 1-1 draw. Belgium under pick'em in last 3 matches: friendly vs Croatia 2-0 win, Nations League vs Italy 0-1 loss, Nations League vs France 1-2 loss. USA have performed decently under pick'em, while Belgium have lost more often.
Recent Similar Handicap
World Cup pick'em: Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia push, Turkey 3-2 USA win, South Korea 2-1 Czech Republic win. Other pick'em: Annapolis 0-2 Botafogo PB loss, Miami City 0-2 Miami AC loss, Miami FC 1-1 Birmingham Legion push. Under pick'em, push and win are more common.
Pre-Match Intelligence
USA recent form: W-L-W-W-W-L, handicap: W-L-W-W-W-L. Belgium recent form: D-W-D-W-W-W, handicap: L-W-L-W-W-W. Confidence index is draw. Head-to-head: USA 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss. Media analysis suggests USA have slightly better overall performance, but Belgium have a slight edge in squad strength, expecting a draw in regular time.
Player Ratings
USA's last match average rating 7.13, highest M. Deilen 8, A. Robinson and Freeman 7.5. Belgium's last match average rating 6.96, highest Tielemans 8.6, Lukaku and Trossard 7.5. USA have a slightly higher average rating.
Last 10 Match Average Ratings
USA: 7.13, 6.55, 6.91, 6.99, 7.17, 6.88, 6.9, 6.92, 6.78, 6.92. Belgium: 6.96, 7.12, 6.65, 6.62, 7.69, 6.71, 6.76, 6.69, 7.61, 7.57. Both teams have fluctuating ratings, but Belgium have higher peaks.
Corner Timing Distribution
USA corners: 01-15 min 6, 15-30 min 5, 30-45 min 7, 45+ 0, 45-60 min 9, 60-75 min 1, 75-90 min 6, 90+ 0. Belgium corners: 01-15 min 2, 15-30 min 3, 30-45 min 5, 45+ 0, 45-60 min 4, 60-75 min 7, 75-90 min 3, 90+ 0. USA have more first-half corners, Belgium more second-half corners.
First Corner Count
USA first corner: 01-15 min 4 times, others 0. Belgium first corner: 01-15 min 2 times, 30-45 min 1 time, 60-75 min 1 time. USA win the first corner earlier.
League Event Statistics
USA last 20 matches goal distribution: 0 goals 20%, 1 goal 50%, 2 goals 20%, 3+ goals 10%. Belgium: 0 goals 20%, 1 goal 25%, 2 goals 10%, 3+ goals 45%. Belgium are more likely to score big. Average yellow cards: USA home 1.6, away 1.4; Belgium home 1.2, away 1.5. Average corners: USA home 5.3, away 6.5; Belgium home 8.7, away 6.6. Belgium have a clear home corner advantage.
Comprehensive Recommendation Logic
Under pick'em, neither side has a handicap advantage. European draw odds have dropped significantly from 3.75 to 3.45, showing bookmakers guarding against a draw. USA have a clear home advantage, but Belgium are experienced. In the knockout stage, both teams may be cautious. For over/under, the 2.75 goal line has seen over odds drop, but Belgium's defense is solid, and USA's attack is stable, supporting over. Half-time over/under 1 goal has over at 0.71 and under at 1.19, suggesting few first-half goals. For corners, USA have strong corner ability, but Belgium are favored with a -0.5 corner handicap, indicating bookmakers expect Belgium to have a corner advantage.
Risk Reminder
Two USA players are doubtful, which may affect squad completeness, especially midfielder Christian Loda's absence could weaken midfield control. Belgium's key players like De Bruyne and Lukaku are older, and fitness could be an issue, especially in the second half. In the knockout stage, both teams may be more cautious, so a low-scoring draw or extra time is possible. Additionally, USA's home crowd support may provide extra motivation but also pressure. Belgium have many draws recently, and despite high attacking efficiency, their finishing ability needs improvement.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: USA win
- Score: 2-1,3-2
- Handicap: USA 0
- Total: Over 2.75