On July 4, 2026 at 22:00 UTC, FIN D1 will feature a match where SJK Seinajoen hosts TPS Turku. This is a Round 16 clash, with both teams in different positions on the table and in recent form. The home side SJK Seinajoen aims to secure all three points with home advantage, while TPS Turku seeks to grab points on the road.
Match Background
SJK Seinajoen currently sits mid-table in FIN D1, with overall strength at an upper-middle level and relatively solid home performances. TPS Turku, as a promoted side, has performed decently this season but has a mediocre away record. This match is crucial for both: SJK Seinajoen needs a win to climb the standings, while TPS Turku hopes to continue their recent point-gathering momentum. Historically, in the last 10 meetings, SJK Seinajoen has 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, including 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss at home, showing clear dominance. However, in the first meeting this season, TPS Turku won 2-0 at home against SJK Seinajoen, when the latter was in poor form. In that match, TPS Turku led 1-0 at halftime, and although full possession stats are unavailable, they led 8-4 in corners, highlighting their efficient counterattacks at home. Additionally, in a March 2026 friendly, the teams drew 1-1, with SJK Seinajoen failing to win at home. Earlier friendlies saw SJK Seinajoen win 3-0 at home in March 2025 and 3-2 at home in March 2023. In FIN D1 history, SJK Seinajoen's home record against TPS Turku is 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, including a 4-0 thrashing in June 2018, a 1-0 narrow win in September 2018, and a 1-0 victory in July 2020, while TPS Turku won 1-0 at home in October 2020. Overall, SJK Seinajoen has a psychological edge at home against TPS Turku, but the first-leg loss this season serves as a warning.
Team Information
SJK Seinajoen is a traditional FIN D1 powerhouse, known for counterattacking and strong home performances. This season, they have won several home games but have been inconsistent recently, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, including a 2-2 away draw with Ilves and a 1-2 home loss to VPS Vaasa. In their last 10 matches, SJK Seinajoen has 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 19 and conceding 16, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, with decent attack but defensive vulnerabilities. In the last 5 matches, they have only 1 win, showing average form. In their most recent match, SJK Seinajoen drew 2-2 away at Ilves, displaying good attacking ability but needing defensive improvement. That match was 0-0 at halftime, and SJK Seinajoen led 7-3 in corners, indicating some dominance. Previously, they drew 1-1 away at FC Inter Turku, leading 1-0 at halftime but conceding an equalizer, with corners 0-3. They lost 1-2 at home to VPS Vaasa, leading 1-0 at halftime but being overturned, with corners 4-2. They won 3-2 away at Lahti, drawing 1-1 at halftime, with corners 2-8 but still winning. In the Finnish Cup, they lost 1-2 at home to FC Inter Turku, drawing 1-1 at halftime, with corners 4-4. It is evident that SJK Seinajoen's recent matches have seen many goals, but they also concede plenty, with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded in the last 5 games, indicating defensive instability. TPS Turku, as a promoted side, has exceeded expectations this season, currently in the lower mid-table, but their away record is poor, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 away games. Their attack relies on quick counterattacks, but the defense has many holes. In the last 10 matches, TPS Turku has 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 9, averaging 1 goal scored and 0.9 conceded per game, with balanced stats but weak away performances. In the last 5 matches, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. In their most recent match, they won 3-2 at home against Jaro, showing an offensive resurgence. That match saw TPS Turku trailing 1-2 at halftime but scoring two in the second half to overturn, with corners 4-8, showing resilience. Previously, they drew 0-0 away at Lahti, 0-0 at halftime, with corners 2-5. They lost 1-2 at home to KuPS, trailing 0-1 at halftime, with corners 4-4. They lost 0-1 away at Ilves, 0-0 at halftime, with corners 4-3. They won 1-0 at home against VPS Vaasa, 0-0 at halftime, with corners 2-9. It is clear that TPS Turku's recent matches have seen few goals, but their defense is relatively solid, conceding only 5 in the last 5 games, though their away attack is weak, with only 2 goals in the last 5 away games.
Recent Form
SJK Seinajoen's last 10 matches: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, scoring 19, conceding 16, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Last 5 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, average form. In their most recent match, they drew 2-2 away at Ilves, showing good attack but needing defensive improvement. Statistically, in the last 10 matches, SJK Seinajoen averaged 57.4% possession, 10.5 shots per game, 5.9 corners per game, 13.1 fouls per game, and 2.2 yellow cards per game, indicating strong control and attack. However, in the last 5 matches, average possession dropped to 49.6%, shots to 11.6, corners to 3.4, fouls to 12.2, and yellow cards to 3, showing reduced control and increased defensive pressure. In the last 3 matches, average possession was 49.7%, shots 10.7, corners 3.7, fouls 12, and yellow cards 3, with continued poor form. TPS Turku's last 10 matches: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, scoring 10, conceding 9, averaging 1 goal scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Last 5 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses. In their most recent match, they won 3-2 at home against Jaro, showing an offensive resurgence. Statistically, in the last 10 matches, TPS Turku averaged 47.1% possession, 14.9 shots per game, 3.7 corners per game, 13.1 fouls per game, and 1.7 yellow cards per game, with many shots but low efficiency. In the last 5 matches, average possession was 47.2%, shots 15.4, corners 3.2, fouls 13.6, and yellow cards 1.8, with increased shots but fewer goals. In the last 3 matches, average possession was 50.7%, shots 14.3, corners 3.3, fouls 13.7, and yellow cards 1, with improved possession but many shots conceded.
Squad Information
Historically, SJK Seinajoen has dominated at home against TPS Turku. In the last 10 meetings, SJK Seinajoen has 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, including 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss at home. In the first meeting this season, TPS Turku won 2-0 at home, but SJK Seinajoen was in poor form then. For this match, SJK Seinajoen has a relatively complete squad with key players available. TPS Turku has limited squad depth and may face fitness challenges on the road. In terms of goal timing, SJK Seinajoen's home goals are concentrated in the 76-90 minute period , followed by 1-15 minutes and 31-45 minutes , while they concede most in the 46-60 minute period and 1-15 minutes , indicating defensive lapses early in the second half but strong late attacking. TPS Turku's away goals are concentrated in the 76-90 minute period , followed by 16-30 minutes , while they concede most in the 61-75 minute period and 31-45 minutes , showing defensive vulnerabilities in the latter part of the game but also late scoring ability.
Odds Movement
For this match, the initial European odds were home win 1.67, draw 4.00, away win 4.35, now adjusted to home win 1.70, draw 3.95, away win 4.20, with the home win odds slightly rising but still low. The Asian handicap initially was home -0.75 with home team at 0.85 and away at 1.03, now home team at 0.92 and away at 0.96, with the handicap stable at home -0.75. The over/under is 2.75, with over at 0.87 and under at 1.00, unchanged. From the odds movement, institutions have strong confidence in the home team, but the rising home team odds may indicate high popularity. For the first half, the initial handicap was home -0.25 with home at 0.75 and away at 1.14, now home at 0.84 and away at 1.04; first half over/under is 1.25, with over rising from 1.13 to 1.14 and under unchanged at 0.74; first half European odds: home win from 2.21 to 2.25, draw from 2.30 to 2.29, away win from 4.70 to 4.55, showing slightly decreased confidence in a home first-half win. The corner handicap is 10, with both over and under at 0.90, unchanged.
Recommendation Logic
In terms of strength comparison, SJK Seinajoen has the overall advantage and home-field edge. TPS Turku performs poorly away with defensive issues. The low home win odds and Asian handicap of home -0.75 reflect institutional support for the home side. For over/under, the 2.75 line is reasonable given both teams' recent attacking displays; SJK Seinajoen has strong home attack, while TPS Turku's away defense is average, so this match is likely to see over. Based on goal timing, both teams score many late goals: SJK Seinajoen has 26 home goals in the 76-90 minute period, TPS Turku has 29 away goals in the same period; also, SJK Seinajoen concedes 21 home goals in the 1-15 minute period, and TPS Turku concedes 22 away goals in the 61-75 minute period, so the latter part of the match may see many goals.
Risk Warning
This match's home team SJK Seinajoen has been inconsistent recently, with only 1 win in the last 5 matches and conceding many goals. Although TPS Turku has a poor away record, their attack has shown signs of recovery, scoring 3 in the last match. Additionally, in the first meeting this season, TPS Turku won 2-0 at home, so they are not psychologically inferior. Therefore, the home team is not guaranteed to win, and an upset should be considered. Statistically, SJK Seinajoen has conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches, while TPS Turku has conceded an average of 1 goal per game in the same period, showing relatively stronger defense. Also, SJK Seinajoen has been shot at 10.7 times per game in the last 3 matches, while TPS Turku has taken 14.3 shots per game in the last 3 matches, indicating the visitors' ability to create chances. In corners, SJK Seinajoen averages 3.4 corners per game in the last 5 matches, TPS Turku averages 3.2, with similar corner ability, but SJK Seinajoen may have a greater home corner advantage. Overall, this match has some uncertainties, so betting should be cautious.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: SJK Seinajoen win
- Score: 2-1,3-0
- Handicap: SJK Seinajoen -0.75
- Total: Over 2.75