Match Background
On July 1, 2026, at 01:00 UTC, the 2026 World Cup Round of 16 knockout match will be held at Dallas Stadium, featuring Ivory Coast against Norway. This is a single-elimination match; if tied after regular time, extra time and penalties will follow. Ivory Coast advanced to the World Cup knockout stage for the first time as the second-place team in Group E, while Norway topped Group F, performing well in the first two group matches and strategically resting players in the final round. The weather at Dallas Stadium on match day is partly cloudy, with temperatures around 29°C to 30°C, which should have little impact on the game.
Team Information
Ivory Coast is ranked in the middle of the world rankings, but African football has improved significantly in recent years. In the group stage, they defeated Ecuador 1-0, beat Curaçao 2-1, and drew 0-0 with another team, advancing unbeaten with a solid defense, conceding only one goal in three matches. Their attack relies on individual abilities of players like Nicolas Pépé, Amad Diallo, and young forward Yann Diomandé. In the last match against Curaçao, Ivory Coast lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation: goalkeeper Yahia Fofana; defense Ghislain Konan, Ousmane Diomandé, Odilon Kossounou, and Guéla Doué; midfield Franck Kessié and Ibrahim Sangaré as double pivots; attack Yann Diomandé, Christ Urai, and Amad Diallo supporting striker Nicolas Pépé. In that match, Pépé scored 8.0, Sangaré 7.8, Yann Diomandé 7.4, with an average rating of 6.96. In terms of player value, Ivory Coast's most valuable player is Yann Diomandé at €75 million, followed by Amad Diallo at €50 million, Ousmane Diomandé at €45 million, and Guéla Doué at €20 million, making the squad competitive.
Norway is a traditional European powerhouse, boasting world-class star Erling Haaland, who scored braces in the first two group matches, showing terrifying scoring efficiency. Norway won 4-1 against Senegal in the first group match, beat Iraq 3-2 in the second, securing early qualification, and then lost 1-4 to France in the final round after rotating most starters, preserving the main players' energy. Norway typically uses a 4-3-3 formation. In the last match against France, the starting lineup included goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland; defense Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjørn Heggen, David Wolf, etc.; midfield Sander Berge, Patrick Berg, F. Olesnes; forwards Alexander Sørloth, Haaland, and Antonio Nusa. However, that match saw heavy rotation, with key players like Martin Ødegaard and Haaland not playing the full 90 minutes. Norway's average ratings over the last 10 matches fluctuate, but core players are in excellent form. Norway's most valuable player is Haaland at €200 million, followed by Martin Ødegaard at €65 million, Antonio Nusa at €32 million, and Sander Berge at €25 million, showing overall strength.
Recent Form
Ivory Coast has 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 10 matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding 8, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. In the last 5 matches, they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. In the last 3 matches, they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. The team's defense is solid, but attacking efficiency has declined recently. Statistically, in the last 10 matches, Ivory Coast averages 11.4 shots, 11.4 shots against, 4.9 corners, 1.3 yellow cards, 11.3 fouls, and 53.9% possession. In the last 5 matches, they average 13.5 shots, 13.5 shots against, 3.5 corners, 1.7 yellow cards, 8 fouls, and 48% possession. In the last 3 matches, they average 13 shots against, 4 corners, 2 yellow cards, 7.7 fouls, and 50.7% possession. Ivory Coast's handicap record in the group stage: 3 wins, 0 pushes, 2 losses in the last 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
Norway has 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 matches, scoring 22 goals and conceding 14, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. In the last 5 matches, they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In the last 3 matches, they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded. Norway's attack is fierce, but the defense has some vulnerabilities, conceding over 2 goals per match in the last 3. Statistically, in the last 10 matches, Norway averages 12.1 shots, 12.1 shots against, 5.3 corners, 0.9 yellow cards, 9.5 fouls, and 52.7% possession. In the last 5 matches, they average 13.4 shots, 13.4 shots against, 6.2 corners, 0.5 yellow cards, 10.6 fouls, and 51% possession. In the last 3 matches, they average 15 shots against, 4.7 corners, 0.5 yellow cards, 11.7 fouls, and 48.7% possession. Norway's handicap record in the group stage: 2 wins, 0 pushes, 3 losses in the last 6 matches, with a 33.3% win rate.
Squad Information
For Ivory Coast, in the last match against Curaçao, attackers like Nicolas Pépé, Yann Diomandé, and Amad Diallo were in good form. Substitutes include players like Wahi, Seri, Diakité, and Touré. The squad is relatively complete with no major injury concerns. From the last lineup, Ivory Coast's starting average rating was 6.96, with Pépé highest at 8.0, Sangaré 7.8, Yann Diomandé 7.4, Ousmane Diomandé and Doué both 7.3, showing stable performance. Among substitutes, Wahi scored 6.1, Seri 6.8, Diakité 6.4, Touré 6.6, providing some rotation depth.
For Norway, core players like Haaland, Ødegaard, and Sørloth were rested in the last round and are well-rested. Norway has sufficient squad depth, with substitutes like Thorsby, Hauge, Pedersen, and A. Nusa. The starting lineup against France averaged only 6.18, with Altzgaard highest at 6.97, Schjelderup 6.93, Bobb 6.72, Olesnes 6.71, while rotated players scored lower, such as Falchena 5.45, Osgaard 5.46, and Larsen 5.58. However, with the return of starters, Norway's overall strength will significantly improve.
Betting Trends
The initial handicap for this match was Norway -0.5, but it has now adjusted to Norway -0.25, with Ivory Coast at 1.05 and Norway at 0.83. The handicap drop from -0.5 to -0.25 indicates slightly reduced support for Norway, but Norway remains the low-odds side. In European odds, initial home win was 4.30, draw 3.55, away win 1.86; currently home win 3.50, draw 3.35, away win 2.13. The away win odds have risen, while home win and draw odds have dropped, suggesting market confidence in a Norway win has wavered. The over/under line remains at 2.5, with over at 0.97 and under at 0.90, slightly favoring over. For the first half, the handicap is Norway -0.25, and the over/under is 1. For corners, the full-time corner handicap is Ivory Coast +1.5, and the corner over/under is 9. Based on similar historical handicaps, Ivory Coast under a -0.5 handicap previously lost 0-1 to Algeria, 0-5 to Netherlands, but also won 2-0 against Russia; Norway under a -0.5 handicap previously won 3-1 against Sweden, lost 1-2 to Czech Republic, and lost 1-2 to Scotland, showing inconsistent performance. In recent similar handicaps in World Cup matches, France -0.5 beat Norway 4-1, South Korea -0.5 lost 0-1 to South Africa, and Mexico -0.5 beat Czech Republic 3-0.
Statistical Comparison
Based on the last 10 matches, Ivory Coast averages 11.4 shots, 11.4 shots against, 4.9 corners, 1.3 yellow cards, 11.3 fouls, and 53.9% possession. Norway averages 12.1 shots, 12.1 shots against, 5.3 corners, 0.9 yellow cards, 9.5 fouls, and 52.7% possession. Both teams have similar possession, with Norway slightly ahead in shots and corners. In goal timing, Ivory Coast scores most in the last 15 minutes , while Norway scores more in the 31-45 minute and 76-90 minute periods. Defensively, Ivory Coast concedes most in the 31-45 minute period, while Norway concedes most in the 76-90 minute period. Specifically, over the last 30 matches, Ivory Coast's goal distribution: 1-15 min 12%, 16-30 min 14%, 31-45 min 22%, 46-60 min 13%, 61-75 min 10%, 76-90 min 26%; conceded: 1-15 min 17%, 16-30 min 5%, 31-45 min 23%, 46-60 min 20%, 61-75 min 14%, 76-90 min 17%. Norway's goal distribution: 1-15 min 12%, 16-30 min 17%, 31-45 min 20%, 46-60 min 12%, 61-75 min 16%, 76-90 min 21%; conceded: 1-15 min 13%, 16-30 min 5%, 31-45 min 16%, 46-60 min 18%, 61-75 min 13%, 76-90 min 33%. In half-time/full-time stats, Ivory Coast in the last 3 matches: half win/full win 1 time, half draw/full win 1 time, half loss/full loss 1 time; Norway: half win/full win 2 times, half loss/full loss 1 time. In over/under, Ivory Coast had 1 over and 2 unders in the last 3 matches; Norway had all 3 overs.
Recommendation Logic
Norway has an overall advantage, with a world-class striker like Haaland, who scored braces in the first two group matches and is in hot form. Although Ivory Coast's defense is solid, their attack may struggle to sustain pressure against strong opponents. The handicap drop from -0.5 to -0.25 might seem like a lack of confidence in Norway, but considering Norway's rotation in the final group match to conserve energy and Ivory Coast's lack of knockout experience, Norway is still worth backing. For over/under, Norway averages 2.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded in the last 3 matches, indicating a fast-paced game, while Ivory Coast averages 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, but facing Norway's powerful attack, their defense may not keep a clean sheet. Overall, a Norway handicap win and over are recommended.
Risk Reminder
Ivory Coast executes counter-attacking tactics well, conceding only one goal in three group matches. If Norway struggles to score, they could be caught off guard. Additionally, the handicap drop may reflect uncertainties about Norway, such as player form or tactical adjustments, so caution is advised.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: Ivory Coast win
- Score: 1-2,2-3
- Handicap: Norway -0.25
- Total: Over 2.5