On June 28, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, the 14th round of the FIN D1 league will feature a crucial relegation battle as TPS Turku host Jaro at home. Both teams are newly promoted from the Finnish First Division this season, currently ranked 10th and 11th respectively, separated by only 2 points. Therefore, this match is vital for the relegation situation. TPS Turku have 14 points, while Jaro have 12, and both urgently need points to escape the relegation zone. Looking at the overall league landscape, the FIN D1 is highly competitive this season, with small point gaps among mid-to-lower table teams, so a single win could significantly change the standings.
TPS Turku have been relatively solid at home this season, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 8 home matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 7. Their home defense is fairly sturdy, conceding less than 1 goal per game on average. However, the team's recent form has dipped, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 league matches, the only win being a 1-0 home victory over VPS Vaasa. In their last match, TPS Turku lost 1-2 at home to KuPS. They had less possession but created some chances, ultimately failing to equalize. Statistically, TPS Turku average 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game in the last 5 matches, with low attacking efficiency but decent defense. Their goal timing shows that the highest proportion of goals comes in the final 15 minutes, indicating they have late-game stamina. Over the last 10 matches, TPS Turku average 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, showing balanced offense and defense. At home, they have 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last 10 matches across all competitions, including key wins against HJK Helsinki and VPS Vaasa, so their home strength should not be underestimated.
Jaro have been poor away from home this season, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 5 losses in 7 away matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 18. Their away defense is virtually nonexistent, conceding over 2.5 goals per game on average. The team is on a three-match losing streak, conceding at least 2 goals in each. In their last match, they suffered a 0-5 thrashing away to Ilves, trailing 0-4 at halftime, and morale is low. In the last 5 league matches, Jaro average 1.4 goals scored but a whopping 2.6 goals conceded, highlighting defensive issues. Their goal timing shows peaks in the 31-45 minute and 76-90 minute periods, accounting for 21% and 22% of goals respectively, but they also concede heavily in these periods, indicating a tendency to collapse late in games. Looking at away results, Jaro's only away win this season was against Mariehamn, but they subsequently lost consecutively to KuPS, Gnistan, Oulu, and Ilves, with their away defense in shambles.
In head-to-head history, TPS Turku hold a clear advantage, with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last 10 meetings, including 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss at home. In the first meeting this season, the teams drew 2-2 at Jaro's home, with TPS Turku taking the lead away but being equalized twice by Jaro. From the head-to-head data, TPS Turku often dominate possession at home against Jaro and also lead in corner kicks. For example, in October 2024, TPS Turku won 3-0 at home against Jaro, leading 2-0 at halftime; in July 2023, they thrashed Jaro 4-0 at home. However, Jaro did win 1-0 away at TPS Turku in September 2022, showing they are not without a chance.
Regarding the handicap for this match, the initial line is home -0.25, with home team odds at 0.92 and away at 0.96. Currently, home odds have dropped to 0.87 while away odds have risen to 1.01, indicating increased support for the home team. The total goals line is 2.5, with over odds at 0.87 and under at 1.00, slightly favoring the over. Considering recent performances, TPS Turku have solid home defense, while Jaro's away attack is weak but their defense is leaky, so total goals are expected to be not too low. For the first half, the handicap is a pick'em, with home odds at 0.68 and away at 1.25, and the first-half total is 1 goal, with over odds at 0.91 and under at 0.96, suggesting a tight first half.
In terms of squad, TPS Turku have no major injury concerns, with the main lineup intact. For Jaro, a key midfielder may be injured, but details are pending confirmation. Both teams primarily rely on counter-attacks, but TPS Turku are more aggressive at home. Statistically, TPS Turku average 45% possession in the last 5 matches, while Jaro average 48.6%, so possession is similar. However, TPS Turku face fewer shots on target at home, indicating better defensive organization.
Overall, TPS Turku have a clear home advantage, a favorable head-to-head record, and Jaro are in terrible away form, so the home team is expected to win narrowly. However, note that TPS Turku's recent attacking efficiency is low, so a big win is unlikely. For total goals, Jaro concede an average of 2.6 goals away, while TPS Turku score an average of 1 goal at home. Combined with the 2.5 line, the over is more probable.
Risk reminder: Although Jaro have poor away results, they have drawn with TPS Turku in history and possess some counter-attacking ability. TPS Turku have been struggling to score recently, and if they fail to break through, they could be caught off guard. Additionally, with a handicap of home -0.25, the home team must win to fully win the bet; a draw results in a half loss, which carries some risk.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: TPS Turku win
- Score: 2-1,3-1
- Handicap: TPS Turku -0.25
- Total: Over 2.5