On June 28, 2026 at 02:00 UTC, the WNBA regular season will feature a matchup where the Toronto Tempo host the Phoenix Mercury. The two teams have met once this season, with the Toronto Tempo winning 98-90 on the road. This is the second meeting of the season, and it remains to be seen whether the Toronto Tempo can continue their winning streak at home or the Phoenix Mercury can seek revenge on the road.
Match Background
This game is part of the WNBA regular season. The Toronto Tempo currently have a 9-9 record, ranking 8th in the league with a 50% win rate. The Phoenix Mercury have a 6-13 record, ranking 13th with a 31.6% win rate. In terms of rankings and records, the Toronto Tempo are performing better overall. The Toronto Tempo have a 5-3 home record, a home win rate of 62.5%, while the Phoenix Mercury have a 4-7 away record, an away win rate of only 36.4%. The Toronto Tempo have a certain home advantage. In the league standings, the Toronto Tempo are 8th in the East, while the Phoenix Mercury are 13th in the East, with a 3.5-game gap between them. The Toronto Tempo average 89.6 points per game at home and allow 85.1 points, with a net rating of +4.5, showing much better defense at home. The Phoenix Mercury average 80.8 points per game on the road and allow 82.6 points, with a net rating of -1.8, indicating slightly insufficient offensive firepower on the road.
Team Information
The Toronto Tempo average 91.4 points per game this season and allow 92.1 points, with a net rating of -0.7. The team is decent offensively but has defensive issues. At home, they average 89.6 points and allow 85.1 points, with a net rating of +4.5, showing much better defense at home. The Phoenix Mercury average 83.7 points per game this season and allow 87.2 points, with a net rating of -3.5. On the road, they average 80.8 points and allow 82.6 points, with a net rating of -1.8, indicating slightly insufficient offensive firepower on the road. In terms of first-half data, the Toronto Tempo average 42.7 points and allow 45.1 points in the first half overall, with a net rating of -2.3 and a first-half win rate of 33.3%. At home, they average 43.9 points and allow 42.2 points in the first half, with a net rating of +1.6 and a first-half win rate of 37.5%. The Phoenix Mercury average 42.6 points and allow 44.1 points in the first half overall, with a net rating of -1.5 and a first-half win rate of 52.6%. On the road, they average 40.1 points and allow 41.2 points in the first half, with a net rating of -1.1 and a first-half win rate of 45.5%. The Toronto Tempo perform relatively better in the first half at home, while the Phoenix Mercury have a higher first-half win rate overall.
Recent Results
The Toronto Tempo have a 5-5 record in their last 10 games, a 50% win rate. In their most recent game, they defeated the Los Angeles Sparks 125-97 at home, showing strong offensive firepower. In that game, the Toronto Tempo scored 125 points and won by 28 points, both season highs. Prior to that, they lost 87-94 on the road to the Atlanta Dream but quickly adjusted and achieved a big win. In the last 10 games, the Toronto Tempo average 93.2 points per game and allow 92.8 points, with a net rating of +0.4, showing improved offense. In the last 10 games, they average 43.2 points in the first half and allow 45.4 points, with a net rating of -2.2 and a first-half win rate of 30%. In the last 10 games, the team has a field goal percentage of 45.6%, three-point percentage of 38.3%, average rebounds of 32.6, assists of 21.4, steals of 8.8, and turnovers of 12.5.
The Phoenix Mercury have a 4-6 record in their last 10 games, a 40% win rate. In their most recent game, they narrowly defeated the Indiana Fever 111-109 on the road, ending a two-game losing streak. In that game, the Phoenix Mercury scored 111 points, showing excellent offense. Prior to that, they lost 77-86 on the road to the Indiana Fever, showing inconsistent away performances. In the last 10 games, the Phoenix Mercury average 83.7 points per game and allow 88.8 points, with a net rating of -5.1, highlighting defensive issues. In the last 10 games, they average 42.7 points in the first half and allow 46.1 points, with a net rating of -3.4 and a first-half win rate of 50%. In the last 10 games, the team has a field goal percentage of 44.7%, three-point percentage of 32.4%, average rebounds of 31.8, assists of 21, steals of 7.2, and turnovers of 13.8.
Roster Information
According to projected lineups, the Toronto Tempo's starting lineup includes small forward Harrison, forward Conde, forward Sarr, guard Allemand, and shooting guard Mabrey. The bench includes forward Yuskate, forward Nina Milic, forward Kyer, center Fagbenle, guard Tima Pouye, and guard Nurse. The Phoenix Mercury's starting lineup includes small forward Valeriane Ayayi, forward Brochant, small forward Cooper, shooting guard Bonner, and guard Holder. The bench includes forward Westbeld, small forward Marta Suarez, guard Carter, center Linskens, guard Shay-Chazki, and small forward Noke.
In terms of injuries, the Toronto Tempo's guard K. Rice and guard Brittany Sykes are expected to be out. The Phoenix Mercury's forward N. Magee, guard McCall, forward Alisha Thomas, and guard Diggins are expected to be out, with Alisha Thomas suspended. Injury information may affect team rotations and tactical arrangements. The Toronto Tempo are missing two guards, which may affect backcourt depth; the Phoenix Mercury have multiple players out, including forwards and guards, especially Alisha Thomas's suspension, weakening their frontcourt strength.
Handicap Trends
The initial point spread for this game was Toronto Tempo -3.5, and it has now moved to Toronto Tempo -5.5, indicating a shift towards the home team. The total points line initially was 177.5, and it has now moved to 176.5, showing a slight decrease. The changes in the handicap reflect the market's recognition of the Toronto Tempo's home advantage, while also lowering expectations for total points. The spread moving from -3.5 to -5.5 suggests increased confidence in the Toronto Tempo. The total points line dropping from 177.5 to 176.5 may consider the recent defensive performances of both teams or the total points in historical matchups.
Recommendation Logic
The Toronto Tempo are strong at home with a home win rate of 62.5%, while the Phoenix Mercury have an away win rate of only 36.4%. The Toronto Tempo are coming off a big win against the Los Angeles Sparks, with high morale and hot offensive form. Although the Phoenix Mercury narrowly won their last game against the Indiana Fever, their overall performance is unstable, and they have significant defensive vulnerabilities. Looking at historical matchups, the Toronto Tempo defeated the Phoenix Mercury on the road in their first meeting this season, giving them a psychological advantage. Overall, the Toronto Tempo covering the spread at home is worth considering.
Regarding total points, the Toronto Tempo average 93.2 points per game in their last 10 games and allow 92.8 points, indicating a fast pace. The Phoenix Mercury average 83.7 points per game in their last 10 games and allow 88.8 points, showing poor defense. In their first meeting this season, the total points reached 188, higher than the current total line. Considering the Toronto Tempo's recent strong offense and the Phoenix Mercury's weak defense, the total points in this game are expected to exceed 176.5.
Risk Reminders
Although the Toronto Tempo have a good home record, they have defensive concerns, allowing an average of 85.1 points per game. The Phoenix Mercury lack offensive firepower on the road, averaging only 80.8 points per game; if they cannot get their offense going, they may struggle to threaten the Toronto Tempo. Additionally, injuries may affect team rotation depth, so attention should be paid to last-minute lineup changes. The Toronto Tempo are missing guards K. Rice and Brittany Sykes, which may limit backcourt rotation; the Phoenix Mercury are missing forward N. Magee, guard McCall, forward Alisha Thomas, and guard Diggins, with Alisha Thomas suspended, leaving the team shorthanded. These factors could influence the game's outcome.
Final Recommendation
- Handicap: Toronto Tempo -5.5
- Total: Over 176.5