At 03:00 UTC on June 27, 2026, the third round of the World Cup group stage will see Senegal face Iraq at Toronto Stadium. Both teams have suffered two consecutive losses in the first two group matches and have been eliminated early, so this match will be played for honor.
Match Background
In this World Cup group stage, Senegal is in the same group as France, Norway, and Iraq. In the first two rounds, Senegal lost 1-3 to France and 2-3 to Norway, losing both matches with 0 points, scoring 3 goals and conceding 6, ranking third in the group. Iraq also performed poorly, losing 1-4 to Norway in the first round and 0-3 to France in the second, scoring 1 goal and conceding 7, sitting at the bottom of the group. Both teams have been eliminated from the knockout stage and will compete for third place in the group. According to the group standings, France and Norway have advanced with 6 points each, while Senegal and Iraq both have 0 points, with goal differences of -3 and -6 respectively. The winner of this match will finish third in the group.
Team Information
Senegal is a strong African team, currently ranked high in the world, with many players plying their trade in top European leagues, such as Mane, Jackson, and Koulibaly. The team's overall strength is significantly stronger than Iraq's, but their defense has exposed major problems in the first two matches, conceding an average of 3 goals per game. Iraq is a traditional Asian powerhouse, but their overall strength lags behind strong African teams. They suffered heavy defeats against Norway and France in the first two matches, with their defense also full of holes. The match will be held at Toronto Stadium, with cloudy weather and a temperature of 20°C, which has little impact on both sides.
Recent Form
Senegal has recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 10 matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding 11, with a win rate of 50%. In the last 5 matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 8 goals and conceding 7, showing average form. In their last World Cup group match, they lost 1-3 to France, with possession below 40%, but their shot count was close to the opponent's, indicating some threat in attack. Based on average ratings from the last 10 matches, Senegal's overall rating is around 6.5, with significant fluctuations. Iraq has 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in their last 10 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 13, with a win rate of 40%. In the last 5 matches, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, scoring 5 goals and conceding 8, also in poor form. In their last match, they lost 0-3 to France, with only 1 shot on target, showing a lack of attacking threat. Iraq's average rating over the last 10 matches is about 6.04, lower than Senegal's overall performance.
Squad Information
Senegal is expected to continue using a 4-2-3-1 formation, with goalkeeper M. Diouf, defenders M. Diouf, Niakhaté, Koulibaly, and Diatta, double defensive midfielders P. Gueye and I. Gueye, attacking line Mane, Camara, and I. Sarr, and striker Jackson. Key player Mane scored 7.84 in the last match, the highest on the team, but the overall defensive rating was low, with Koulibaly only scoring 4.06. Iraq is expected to use a 4-1-4-1 formation, with goalkeeper Basil, defenders Ali, Tahseen, Hashim, and Doski, defensive midfielder Amari, midfielders Qasim, Sher, Jassim, and Bayesh, and striker Hammadi. In the last match, the team's average rating was 6.04, with goalkeeper Basil only scoring 4.91, indicating poor defensive performance. Based on the last match's lineup, Senegal's starting players generally have high market values, such as P. Gueye, Camara, I. Sarr, and Jackson, each valued at 40 million euros, while Iraqi players are mostly valued under 1 million euros, showing a clear gap in strength.
Handicap Trends
The initial handicap for this match was Senegal -1, which has now risen to -1.25, with the home team at 0.83 and the away team at 1.05, indicating increased confidence from the bookmakers in Senegal. The over/under handicap has risen from 2.5 to 3 goals, with over at 0.97 and under at 0.90, suggesting an expectation of more goals. In European odds, the home win odds have dropped from 1.51 to 1.22, the draw odds have risen from 4.10 to 6.60, and the away win odds have risen from 5.70 to 12.50, further favoring a Senegal victory. For the first half handicap, the initial line was Senegal -0.5, now risen to -0.75, with the home team at 0.83 and the away team at 1.05. The first half over/under has risen from 1 to 1.25 goals, with over at 0.97. For corner kicks, the initial handicap was Senegal -2.5, now risen to -3.5, with over at 0.80, indicating that the bookmakers believe Senegal also has an advantage in corners.
Recommendation Logic
Senegal's overall strength is far superior to Iraq's. Although they lost the first two matches, their attack performed reasonably well, averaging 1.5 goals per game. Iraq's defense is fragile, conceding an average of 3.5 goals per game, and their attack is weak. In this match, Senegal will play for honor and can be trusted to be motivated. Against a weaker Iraq, they are expected to achieve a big win. The handicap has risen from -1 to -1.25, showing sufficient support. The over/under has risen to 3 goals, and considering both teams' poor defenses, a high-scoring match is likely. Based on statistics, Senegal averages 1 goal scored and 2 conceded per game in the last 3 matches, with 11 shots faced, 4.7 corners, and 52.7% possession. Iraq averages 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, with 11.7 shots faced, 2.3 corners, and 39.3% possession. Senegal has a clear advantage in possession and corners.
Risk Reminder
Both teams have been eliminated, so motivation may be lacking. Senegal's defense has vulnerabilities, and if Iraq adopts a defensive approach, it could affect the match. Additionally, with a deep handicap, Senegal needs to win by at least two goals to cover fully, which carries some risk. In terms of goal timing, Senegal scores most frequently in the 76-90 minute period, while Iraq concedes most frequently in the same period, making the final stages crucial. Also, Senegal has a high over rate in the last 10 matches, but Iraq's under rate is not low, so caution is needed when choosing over/under.
Expanded Analysis
To provide a more comprehensive view, let's delve deeper into the available data. Senegal's recent form includes a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia in a friendly on June 10, 2026, and a 3-2 loss to the USA on June 1, 2026. In the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year, Senegal had mixed results: a 3-0 win over Benin, a 3-1 win over Sudan, a 1-0 win over Egypt, a 0-3 loss to Morocco, and a 1-0 win over Mali. These matches show that Senegal can be dominant against weaker opponents but struggle against strong teams. Iraq's recent form includes a 0-2 loss to Venezuela in a friendly on June 10, 2026, a 1-1 draw with Spain on June 5, 2026, and a 1-0 win over Andorra on May 30, 2026. In the World Cup qualifiers, Iraq beat Bolivia 2-1 on April 1, 2026. In the Arab Cup, Iraq had wins over Bahrain and Sudan , but losses to Jordan and Algeria . These results indicate that Iraq can be competitive against mid-tier teams but often struggles against top sides.
Looking at the head-to-head history, there are no previous encounters between Senegal and Iraq, making this a fresh matchup. The venue, Toronto Stadium, is a neutral ground, which should not favor either side significantly. The weather forecast is cloudy with a temperature of 20°C, which is comfortable for football and unlikely to affect performance.
In terms of squad depth, Senegal's bench includes players like E. Mendy, Diatta, Mbaye, Cissé, Jacobs, P. Sarr, Y. Diouf, A. Mendy, Diarra, M. Sarr, I. Ndiaye, and C. Ndiaye. Iraq's bench includes Amin, Hammadi, Sourka, Farji, Sher, Yakoub, Sadoun, Jassim, Putros, Talib, and Hassan. The quality of Senegal's substitutes is generally higher, with several players having European experience.
From a statistical perspective, Senegal's average goals per game in the last 10 matches is 1.6, while Iraq's is 1.1. Senegal's average possession in the last 10 matches is 56.5%, compared to Iraq's 46.3%. Senegal also averages more corners and fewer fouls . However, Senegal's defense has been leaky, conceding 1.1 goals per game on average over the last 10, while Iraq concedes 1.3. In the last 3 matches, Senegal's defensive numbers are worse: 2 goals conceded per game, while Iraq concedes 2.3.
The goal probability data shows that Senegal scores most frequently in the 76-90 minute period , while Iraq also scores most in that period . Defensively, Senegal concedes most in the 76-90 minute period , and Iraq concedes most in the same period . This suggests that the final stages of the match could be particularly eventful.
In terms of handicap trends, the initial handicap of Senegal -1 has moved to -1.75, which is a significant shift. This indicates strong market confidence in Senegal winning by multiple goals. The over/under moving from 2.5 to 3 also suggests that a high-scoring game is anticipated. The European odds movement is also telling: home win odds dropped from 1.51 to 1.22, while away win odds soared from 5.70 to 12.50. This is a clear indication that the market expects a Senegal victory.
For the first half, the handicap moved from -0.5 to -0.75, and the over/under from 1 to 1.25, suggesting that Senegal is expected to lead at halftime. The corner handicap moved from -2.5 to -3.5, indicating that Senegal is likely to dominate set pieces.
Given that both teams have been eliminated, motivation could be a factor. However, Senegal has more to prove, as they are a higher-ranked team and will want to avoid finishing last in the group. Iraq, on the other hand, may be content with a respectable performance. The risk of a lackluster match exists, but the odds suggest otherwise.
In summary, the data strongly supports a Senegal win with multiple goals. The handicap and over/under trends align with the expectation of a high-scoring game. However, bettors should be cautious about the depth of the handicap, as Senegal needs to win by at least two goals to cover. The final stages of the match are likely to see goals, given the goal timing statistics. Overall, this match presents an opportunity for Senegal to end their World Cup campaign on a positive note.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: Senegal win
- Score: 3-1,4-0
- Handicap: Senegal -1.75
- Total: Over 3