Match Background
At 10:00 UTC on June 26, 2026, the final round of the 2026 World Cup group stage will be held at Los Angeles Stadium, featuring Turkey vs USA. This is the third round of Group D. Currently, USA has won both matches with 6 points, securing the top spot in the group; Turkey has lost both matches with 0 points and is already eliminated. For Turkey, this is a match for honor, while USA aims to end the group stage with a victory to maintain momentum into the knockout rounds. The weather at Los Angeles Stadium on match day is clear, with temperatures around 22°C to 23°C, suitable for play.
Team Information
Turkey is currently ranked 29th in the world. The squad includes players from Europe's top five leagues such as Calhanoglu, Guler, and Yildiz. However, Turkey's performance in this World Cup has been disappointing: they lost 0-2 to Australia in the first match and 0-1 to Paraguay in the second, failing to score in either game and exposing defensive issues. The team lacks effective organization in attack, with shots and possession not in their favor in both group matches. Historically, Turkey averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game in their last 10 matches, but in the World Cup proper, they have scored zero goals in two games, showing a significant decline in attacking efficiency. In terms of corners, Turkey averaged 7.3 per game in the last 10 matches and 9 per game in the last 3, indicating some threat from wide areas. For fouls, they averaged 10 per game in the last 10 matches and 2.3 yellow cards per game.
As the host nation, USA has performed excellently in this World Cup, winning 4-1 against Paraguay in the first match and 2-0 against Australia in the second, scoring 6 goals and conceding only 1, demonstrating strong performance on both ends. Key player Pulisic missed the first two matches due to a calf injury, but USA still fired on all cylinders, with McKennie, Pepi, and others in good form. USA is currently high in morale and has sufficient squad depth; even with some rotation, their overall strength is still above Turkey's. In their last 10 matches, USA averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, and in the last 3 matches, they averaged 2.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. For corners, they averaged 5.1 per game in the last 10 matches and 5.7 per game in the last 3. For fouls, they averaged 12.1 per game in the last 10 matches and 1.4 yellow cards per game.
Recent Form
Turkey has won 6, drawn 1, and lost 3 in their last 10 matches, but the opponents varied in strength. In friendlies before the World Cup, Turkey beat North Macedonia 4-0 and Venezuela 2-1, but performed poorly against strong teams, such as a 0-6 loss to Spain. In the last 3 matches, Turkey averaged 2.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game, but in the World Cup proper, they have scored zero goals in two games, showing a clear decline in attacking efficiency. In European qualifiers before the World Cup, Turkey beat Kosovo 1-0, Romania 1-0, drew 2-2 with Spain, beat Bulgaria 2-0, beat Georgia 4-1, and beat Bulgaria 6-1, showing some competitiveness. However, in the World Cup group stage, Turkey lost both matches, scoring 0 and conceding 3, in poor form.
USA has won 6, drawn 1, and lost 3 in their last 10 matches, averaging 2.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game in the last 3. In friendlies before the World Cup, USA lost 1-2 to Germany and 2-5 to Belgium, but regained form in the World Cup, scoring 6 goals in two matches. USA's attack is multi-faceted, with 5 different players scoring in the first two matches. In friendlies before the World Cup, USA also beat Senegal 3-2, lost 0-2 to Portugal, lost 2-5 to Belgium, beat Uruguay 5-1, beat Paraguay 2-1, beat Australia 2-1, drew 1-1 with Ecuador, and beat Japan 2-0. Overall, USA's recent form is stable, especially strong at home.
Lineup Information
Turkey's starting lineup in the last match against Paraguay included goalkeeper Cakir, defenders Muldur, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu, midfielders Yuksek, Calhanoglu, Guler, forwards Akgun, Yildiz, Akturkoglu. The team's average rating was 6.56, with center-back Bardakci receiving the highest rating of 7.38. Substitutes included Yilmaz, Kokcu, Elmali, Uzun, Gur, Aydin, Akaydin, Gunok, Kahveci, Ayhan, Celik. Turkey's squad is relatively complete with no major injury reports.
USA's starting lineup in the last match against Australia included goalkeeper Matt Freese, defenders Freeman, Ream, C. Richards, A. Robinson, midfielders Adams, McKennie, M. Deilen, forwards Dest, Balogun, Pepi. The team's average rating was 6.91, with right-back Freeman receiving the highest rating of 8.44. Substitutes included Trusty, White, Scally, Reyna, Berhalter, Loda, Alejandro, M. Turner, M. Robinson, Weah, McKenzie. USA has two players injured: central midfielder Christian Loda is doubtful, and right winger Pulisic has a calf injury. Pulisic is a key player, and his absence affects the attack, but USA performed well without him in the first two matches.
Odds Trends
The initial handicap was a pick'em, with home team Turkey at 0.97 and away team USA at 0.85. The handicap later shifted to USA -0.5, with home team at 0.93 and away team at 0.95. The change indicates increased confidence in USA from the bookmakers. In European odds, the initial home win was 2.62, draw 3.40, away win 2.46, now adjusted to 3.50, 3.90, 1.95, with the away win odds significantly lowered, further supporting USA. For total goals, the initial line was 2.5, with over at 1.01 and under at 0.79; later adjusted to 2.75, with over at 0.94 and under at 0.93, indicating some caution from bookmakers towards over. For the first half handicap, initially pick'em with home at 0.96 and away at 0.86; later adjusted to USA -0.25, with home at 0.82 and away at 1.06. First half total goals initially at 1, over 1.02, under 0.78; still at 1, over 0.72, under 1.17. For corners, the total line was initially 9.5, over 1.00, under 0.80, and remained unchanged.
Recommendation Logic
USA is clearly stronger and has home advantage as the host. Turkey is already eliminated, so their motivation is questionable, while USA needs to maintain winning momentum and will strive for victory even with rotation. Based on recent performances, USA's attack is powerful, scoring 6 goals in two group matches, while Turkey's defense is unstable, conceding 3 goals in two matches. The handicap shifted from pick'em to USA -0.5, showing increased support from bookmakers. The total goals line rose to 2.75, and considering USA's attacking ability and Turkey's potential to go all out, over is worth considering. In historical meetings, the two teams have faced each other 3 times recently, with Turkey winning 1 and USA winning 2. The most recent meeting was on June 8, 2025, in an international friendly, where Turkey beat USA 2-1 away, but USA's squad was incomplete at that time. In this match, USA plays at home and is in good form, likely to seek revenge.
Risk Reminder
USA has already advanced, so they may rotate some key players, which could affect their attacking efficiency. Although Turkey is eliminated, they may give their all for honor, and their counter-attacks should not be underestimated. Additionally, Pulisic's absence impacts USA's wing play. Data shows that USA has conceded an average of 1.7 goals per game in their last 3 matches, so their defense is not impenetrable; Turkey could score if they seize opportunities. Also, Turkey has been shot at an average of 8.3 times per game in their last 3 matches, while USA has been shot at an average of 9.7 times per game in their last 3, indicating defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
Final Recommendation
- 1X2: Turkey win
- Score: 1-2,2-3
- Handicap: USA -0.5
- Total: Over 2.75