At 10:00 UTC on June 26, 2026, the WNBA regular season will feature a matchup where the Seattle Storm host the New York Liberty. There is a clear gap in strength and recent form between the two teams. The Liberty, as a top-tier team in the league, have performed excellently this season, while the Storm are struggling with poor results. The handicap for this game is Liberty -11.5, and the total line is 169.5, reflecting expectations of a big Liberty win.
Game Background
This game is part of the WNBA regular season, with the Seattle Storm playing at home. The Storm have had a poor start to the season with a dismal record, while the Liberty are firmly among the league's elite and are strong contenders for the championship. The two teams have faced each other many times historically, with the Liberty holding a clear advantage, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings. Looking at historical data, the most recent matchup was on September 6, 2025, when the Liberty won 84-76 on the road against the Storm, with a halftime score of 47-39, showing the Liberty's dominance even away. On July 7, 2025, the Liberty lost 70-79 at home to the Storm, but that was a rare defeat. On June 23, 2025, the Storm won 89-79 at home against the Liberty, with a halftime score of 43-42, showing the Storm have had good performances at home. On September 6, 2024, the Liberty won 77-70 at home against the Storm, halftime 40-36. On August 31, 2024, the Liberty won 98-85 on the road against the Storm, halftime 51-49, with the Liberty's offense firing on all cylinders. On May 21, 2024, the Liberty won 74-63 at home against the Storm, halftime 36-24. On July 26, 2023, the Liberty won 86-82 at home against the Storm, halftime 35-45, coming from behind. On July 9, 2023, the Liberty won 80-76 at home against the Storm, halftime 35-36. On July 3, 2023, the Liberty won 81-66 on the road against the Storm, halftime 27-44, showing dominance away. On May 31, 2023, the Liberty won 86-78 on the road against the Storm, halftime 39-46. Overall, the Liberty have a clear historical advantage, especially in recent meetings, winning 7 of the last 10, including a 98-85 road win on August 31, 2024. The Storm have had some bright moments at home, but the overall gap in strength is evident.
Team Information
Seattle Storm: The Storm have struggled this season, currently with a 2-8 record, ranking near the bottom of the league. The team has issues on both ends of the floor, averaging only 77.2 points per game while allowing 83.8 points. At home, the Storm have a 2-6 record in 8 home games, averaging 77.4 points scored and 78.6 points allowed, with no clear home advantage. Recently, the Storm have lost four straight games, hitting rock bottom. Looking at the Storm's season averages, they score 20.6 points in the first quarter, 19.1 in the second, 17.9 in the third, 19.5 in the fourth, and 0 in overtime, indicating a slow offensive pace, especially low scoring in the third quarter, suggesting issues with stamina or tactical adjustments in the second half. Defensively, the Storm allow 83.8 points per game, with 23.1 in the first quarter, 19.9 in the second, 20.9 in the third, and 20 in the fourth, with significant defensive lapses in the first quarter. At home, the Storm average 77.4 points scored and 78.6 allowed, with slightly better defense than on the road, but offense remains weak. On the road, the Storm average 77 points scored and 89 allowed, with poor defense. The Storm's recent home record is 2-6, including a 72-76 loss to the Golden State Valkyries on June 13, an 83-88 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks on June 11, a 68-72 loss to the Phoenix Mercury on June 4, a 64-78 loss to the Washington Mystics on May 28, and a 97-85 win over the Washington Mystics on May 25. The Storm's only home win was against the Mystics on May 25, but they have since fallen into a losing streak.
New York Liberty: The Liberty have shown great strength this season, currently with an 8-2 record, sitting atop the league standings. Their offense is fierce, averaging 88.9 points per game, while their defense is solid, allowing 82.3 points. On the road, the Liberty have a 4-2 record in 6 away games, averaging 97.2 points scored and 89.7 allowed, with even stronger offensive output than at home. The Liberty are in hot form recently, winning 4 of their last 5 games. Looking at the Liberty's season averages, they score 21.6 points in the first quarter, 21.7 in the second, 23.8 in the third, 20.9 in the fourth, and 0.9 in overtime, with balanced offensive firepower and the highest scoring in the third quarter, showing strong stamina. Defensively, the Liberty allow 82.3 points per game, with 20.4 in the first quarter, 18.9 in the second, 20.5 in the third, 22 in the fourth, and 0.5 in overtime, with solid overall defense but slightly higher points allowed in the fourth quarter. At home, the Liberty average 83.4 points scored and 77.4 allowed, with excellent defense. On the road, the Liberty average 97.2 points scored and 89.7 allowed, with fierce offensive output but some defensive decline. The Liberty's recent road record is 4-2, including a 96-95 narrow win over the Chicago Sky on June 18, a 104-90 blowout win over the Atlanta Dream on June 12, an 89-80 win over the Connecticut Sun on June 9, an 81-74 win over the Portland Flames on May 26, and a 91-76 win over the Dallas Wings on May 25. The Liberty's only road loss was 74-81 to the Portland Flames on May 26, but they quickly adjusted.
Recent Results
The Seattle Storm have won only 2 of their last 10 games, including a four-game losing streak. In their most recent game, the Storm lost 89-94 on the road to the Portland Flames, despite leading at halftime, they were overturned in the second half. The Storm's defense has been porous, allowing over 90 points per game in their last 5 games. Specifically, the Storm's last 10 games: June 18: lost 89-94 at Portland Flames, halftime 47-48; June 13: lost 72-76 home to Golden State Valkyries, halftime 38-40; June 11: lost 83-88 home to Los Angeles Sparks, halftime 40-40; June 9: lost 91-101 at Las Vegas Aces, halftime 43-50; June 7: lost 68-88 at Minnesota Lynx, halftime 43-45; June 4: lost 68-72 home to Phoenix Mercury, halftime 33-36; June 2: lost 56-79 at Dallas Wings, halftime 25-36; May 31: lost 72-93 at Toronto Tempo, halftime 36-37; May 28: lost 64-78 home to Washington Mystics, halftime 29-48; May 25: won 97-85 home to Washington Mystics, halftime 49-37. The Storm have only one win on May 25, losing the other 9 games, in extremely poor form.
The New York Liberty have won 8 of their last 10 games, showing strong performance. In their most recent game, the Liberty won 96-95 on the road against the Chicago Sky, demonstrating great resilience. The Liberty's offense has been multi-faceted, averaging over 95 points per game in their last 5 games. Specifically, the Liberty's last 10 games: June 18: won 96-95 at Chicago Sky, halftime 45-47; June 15: won 86-64 home to Washington Mystics, halftime 36-28; June 12: won 104-90 at Atlanta Dream, halftime 44-51; June 9: won 89-80 at Connecticut Sun, halftime 35-38; June 7: won 83-75 home to Indiana Fever, halftime 37-40; June 4: won 97-82 home to Toronto Tempo, halftime 40-34; May 30: won 75-68 home to Phoenix Mercury, halftime 34-31; May 28: won 84-74 home to Phoenix Mercury, halftime 42-43; May 26: lost 74-81 home to Portland Flames, halftime 33-35; May 25: lost 76-91 home to Dallas Wings, halftime 44-43. The Liberty suffered two consecutive losses on May 25 and 26, but quickly adjusted and have since won six straight, in hot form.
Roster Information
Seattle Storm: The Storm have a relatively young roster but lack a superstar. Their core players are inconsistent, with insufficient interior strength and unstable outside shooting. There are no clear injury reports, but overall rotation depth is limited. Looking at averages, the Storm rely on team play offensively but lack consistent scoring options, with 77.2 points per game ranking near the bottom of the league. Defensively, the Storm allow 83.8 points per game, with low efficiency, especially on the road where they allow 89 points per game, showing significant vulnerabilities. The Storm have no clear advantages in rebounds, assists, or other team stats, and overall strength is at the bottom of the league.
New York Liberty: The Liberty have a star-studded roster with multiple All-Star players. They are balanced inside and out, with diverse offensive options and excellent defensive rotations. The Liberty have a full squad with no major players missing, allowing them to field their strongest lineup. Looking at averages, the Liberty's offense is explosive, averaging 88.9 points per game, ranking among the league's best, especially on the road with 97.2 points per game, an astonishing offensive output. Defensively, the Liberty allow 82.3 points per game, with high efficiency, but on the road they allow 89.7 points, showing some decline. The Liberty have advantages in rebounds, assists, and other stats, with overall strength clearly superior to the Storm.
Handicap Trends
The initial handicap for this game was Liberty -13.5, but it has now been adjusted to Liberty -11.5, a slight decrease, but the Liberty are still favored. For the total, the initial line was 169.5, which remains unchanged, with the over odds rising from 0.88 to 0.9 and the under odds dropping from 0.88 to 0.86, indicating some market inclination towards the over. The handicap dropping from 13.5 to 11.5 may reflect slightly reduced confidence in a big Liberty win, but Liberty -11.5 is still a deep line, indicating expectations of an easy Liberty victory. The total line of 169.5, combined with both teams' recent offensive and defensive performances, makes the over attractive. The Storm have allowed over 90 points per game in their last 5 games, while the Liberty have scored over 95 points per game in their last 5, suggesting a high-scoring game.
Recommendation Logic
From a fundamental perspective, the Liberty are far superior to the Storm, and their recent form is significantly better. The Storm have performed poorly at home, while the Liberty have strong road offense, making it likely they will cover the spread. For the total, the Storm's defense is poor, and the Liberty's offense is efficient, so both teams are likely to contribute to a high score. The Liberty have a historical advantage, especially in recent meetings, winning most games. The Storm are on a four-game losing streak with low morale, while the Liberty are on a six-game winning streak with high morale. The Liberty average 97.2 points on the road, while the Storm allow 78.6 points at home, but the Storm's defense has declined recently, allowing over 90 points per game in their last 5, so the Liberty are expected to score high on the road. The Storm's offense averages 77.2 points, and facing the Liberty's defense, their scoring may be limited, but the Liberty also allow high points on the road, so the Storm might still score some points. Overall, Liberty -11.5 and over 169.5 both have some rationale.
Risk Warning
Although the Storm have a poor record, playing at home might spark some fighting spirit. The Liberty have a dense schedule recently and may face fatigue issues. The handicap dropping from 13.5 to 11.5 warrants caution about the Liberty winning but not covering. The Storm have beaten the Liberty at home before, such as on June 23, 2025, when they won 89-79, so the Storm are not without a chance. The Liberty suffered two consecutive losses on May 25 and 26, showing some fluctuation, and despite their recent winning streak, caution is needed on the road. For the total, the Storm's offensive efficiency is low; if the Liberty focus on defense, the game could become low-scoring. Additionally, the Liberty allow many points on the road, but whether the Storm's offense can match is uncertain. Therefore, investors should consider various factors and make cautious decisions.
Final Recommendation
- Handicap: Seattle Storm +11.5
- Total: Over 169.5